Twenty years ago, Scotland made a choice.

In 2005, we were dubbed the “murder capital of the developed world”. There were 137 homicides that year. Violence felt inevitable – a grim reality to be managed rather than prevented.

But Scotland chose a different path.

Youth workers, social workers, teachers, police officers, community leaders and policymakers came together around a simple but radical idea: violence is not a moral failing. It is not inevitable. It is a public health issue – something that can be understood, treated and ultimately prevented.

Last year, Scotland recorded 45 homicides. That is nearly 100 fewer families each year having to bury a loved one compared to 2005.

Using the Home Office cost calculator and adjusting for inflation, we estimate the cost of violence to Scotland in 2005 was £1.8billion. Today it stands at £960million – almost half.

But let’s be clear: this isn’t about balance sheets. It’s about lives. And 45 is still too many.

The Stories Behind the Statistics

In the two and a half years I’ve been at the SVRU, I’ve heard stories that will stay with me.

Mothers who have lost children to violence and it never gets any less heart wrenching. People who felt every force in their lives was pushing them towards violence. Young people who believe carrying a knife is their only route to safety.

But I’ve also heard stories of hope.

Young people supported by G20 who found belief in themselves when they felt written off. People taking part in Scotland’s first Violence Anonymous cohort, discovering the power of peer support and accountability. Young people who didn’t thrive in school but flourished learning practical skills at the community trade hub in Levenmouth. New Scots targeted for exploitation who found safety, belonging and routes into employment through One Community Scotland.

There are many more stories like these from organisations across Scotland: Medics Against Violence, YouthLink Scotland, Street Soccer, Aid&Abet, SACRO, Scottish Mediation, Zero Tolerance, Think Equal, Men Matter Scotland, Strong Safe and Free and Kingsway, to name just a few.  We will never hear them all.

Because prevention is invisible.

We do not count the arguments that never escalate.
The young person who finds one trusted adult and changes course.
The moment someone decides not to pick up a weapon.

Yet those invisible moments are the foundation of everything that matters in violence reduction.

What We Learned

The last two decades have shown us what works.

It’s not more bars on windows. It’s youth work. It’s safe spaces. It’s nurturing relationships – especially when circumstances are hardest.

We have learned that one trusted relationship can rewrite a life story. That timely support can change trajectory. That empathy, kindness and humanity are more than soft options – they are powerful tools.

If you ask the founders of the SVRU what made the difference in those early days, it is a coalition of the willing. A commitment to the public health approach. Decisions made for the long term, not the next election cycle.

Those principles matter just as much today as they did in 2005.

A Changing Landscape

But violence evolves.

The public health approach teaches us that it is a shapeshifter. If we want to remain effective, we must adapt.

We are living in a post-pandemic society. Public services and the third sector are stretched. While many forms of violence have declined, domestic and sexual violence have risen, finding new shadows to hide in.

Too often, the media in Scotland stigmatises vulnerability and politicises harm. There are some benefits to AI and automation, but we also see it creating a future that feels uncertain to young people are navigating identity, belonging and safety.

The complexity of our work has grown. Our efforts intersect with multiple government portfolios, legislation and international commitments. Expectations are higher. Resources are tighter.

The Next Twenty

Working in prevention has never been simple. Now it is also more complex and more urgent than ever.

It has been said that change has never been this fast, but it will never be this slow again.

We cannot meet today’s challenges simply by working harder. We must work smarter and deeper. We must collaborate more intentionally. We must anticipate, not just react.

We cannot rest on what some call “the Glasgow miracle”. Progress is real, but it is fragile.

Complacency is not an option.

Twenty years ago, Scotland showed courage. Leaders and communities looked beyond short-term pressures and chose long-term change. We are the beneficiaries of that decision.

Now it is our turn.

Violence is preventable. Our work is unfinished.

Let’s get to work on the next twenty.

– Jimmy Paul, Head of the Scottish Violence Reduction Unit